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李笑来:为什么我对区块链应用保持谨慎乐观

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<p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><br></span></p><p style="text-align: center;"> </p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><br></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">声明</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">:</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">我绝对没有&nbsp;“砸场子”&nbsp;的意思。对于区块链应用,与对比特币一样,我一直保持着谨慎的、长期的乐观。不过,要说话,就应该尽量说实话,是不?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">区块链技术是不是新技术?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">就算是吧。事实上,加密算法、P2P&nbsp;文件传输、交易确认的拓扑结构等等构成&nbsp;“区块链技术”&nbsp;的组成部分,没有一个不是早已经使用了至少&nbsp;10&nbsp;年以上的东西。只不过是过去人们主要用&nbsp;P2P&nbsp;技术下载毛片,现在有一帮极客用&nbsp;P2P&nbsp;技术下载账簿(即,所谓的&nbsp;“区块”)而已……</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">目前有没有成功的区块链技术应用?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">比特币本身就是第一个,且目前最成功的区块链技术应用。还有别的吗?从这个角度望过去,所有山寨币其实都是,所有二代币其实都是,至于成功与否,比较难说……好像比特币目前确实&nbsp;“鹤立鸡群”。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">大多数区块链应用提议基本上都是然并卵的东西,原因如下:</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">1.&nbsp;开源在部分程度上与商业化冲突</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">你不开源,就没人跟你玩;你开源,就没办法把这个东西彻底占为己有……挺难办的罢?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">2.&nbsp;底层逻辑说不过去</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">我是个大公司,我要做一个&nbsp;P2P&nbsp;的、去中心化的应用……&nbsp;不过,这个东西得归我所有……</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">3.&nbsp;少数真有希望的项目需要特定的人才能搞起来</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">互联网技术人才运营人才冲出去搞个&nbsp;O2O,还是比较容易的,因为那相当于知识储备更高的一票人冲到另外一个领域快刀斩南瓜;可是他们冲进现实或者虚拟的金融保险领域的时候,知识储备不见得一定够用罢?说不定到底是谁手里拿着快刀、谁是南瓜呢……</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">4.&nbsp;天然合适的区块链应用场景障碍重重</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">比如,博彩,就是很适合开发区块链应用的场景,a)&nbsp;有账务公开必要,b)&nbsp;完全由自动化合约构成……&nbsp;可是,这些场景吧,总是有各种障碍,使得一般人无法参与。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">5.&nbsp;去中心化、账务公开并不总是必须、必需的</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">央行账务公开,确实是我们所向往的事情;可一般的小信用社、普通的商业银行,其实是否账务公开并不重要。版权分发也许需要去中心化解决方案,版权认定去中心化并不是很容易,且不见得必要。大多数关于区块链技术的畅想,基本上是&nbsp;“手里拿着个锤子,看什么都是钉子”&nbsp;的结果。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">比特币没有应用就没有价值?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">长期以来,一个常见的主流&nbsp;“质疑”&nbsp;论调认为,比特币这个东西,若是没有&nbsp;“应用”,那么比特币就没有价值。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">这个论点颇令我迷惑,甚至找不到必要去反驳&nbsp;——&nbsp;咱先暂时承认一个货币需要应用才有价值罢,那谁来给我讲讲美元的应用究竟都有哪些?人民币的应用都有哪些呗?我确实不知道,真心想知道……</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">闲着没事儿&nbsp;“去比特币化”&nbsp;图哪般?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">另外一个最近听到的说法就是&nbsp;“去比特币化”。这事儿我就更难理解了,为啥要去比特币化?你们搞你们的呗?咋又突然开始冒出个&nbsp;“你死我活”&nbsp;态度?</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">A16Z&nbsp;的老大&nbsp;Marc&nbsp;Andreessesen&nbsp;最近发了一条推特,大意是说,</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">很多大公司都想做个区块链应用却不想要比特币,这就好像是&nbsp;1994&nbsp;的时候在说&nbsp;“我想连线,但可不可以不用互联网?”</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-weight:bold;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal" style="text-indent:21.0000pt;mso-char-indent-count:2.0000;"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">嗯,我觉得这真是个非常精彩的类比,简单、直接、清楚。</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">&nbsp;</span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;">来自:36氪</span><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoNormal"><span style="mso-spacerun:'yes';font-family:宋体;font-size:10.5000pt;mso-font-kerning:1.0000pt;"><br></span></p>
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